States secondary school entry numbers to fall by 13% over next five years
- Year 7 entry numbers in state-maintained secondary schools projected to fall from 459 in 2026 to 400 in 2030, a 13% decline
- All three state-maintained secondary schools face declining Year 7 intakes over the next five years, with sharpest drop between 2027 and 2028
- Average 17% of Year 6 pupils historically move to specialist schools, grant-aided colleges or home education rather than state secondaries
- Les Varendes High School absorbed La Mare de Carteret pupils, growing from 614 to 775 students between 2024 and 2025
- Overall secondary school population rose to 2,430 pupils in November 2025, up from 2,292 in 2024
Guernsey's state-maintained secondary schools are projected to see a marked decline in pupil numbers over the next five years, according to data released by Education, Sport & Culture.
The figures, disclosed through a freedom of information request, show that Year 7 entry numbers are expected to drop from 459 pupils in 2026 to 400 in 2030 — a reduction of 59 pupils or approximately 13%.
The projections are based on current primary school populations and account for an average 17% of Year 6 pupils who historically do not progress to state-maintained secondary schools. These pupils instead move to specialist schools, grant-aided colleges, or become home educated.
All three state-maintained secondary schools are forecast to experience declining intakes. Les Beaucamps High School, currently the largest, is projected to see Year 7 numbers fall from 167 in 2026 to 138 in 2030. Les Varendes High School is expected to drop from 145 to 131 pupils over the same period, whilst St Sampsons High School faces a decline from 136 to 117.
The overall secondary school population across all institutions stood at 2,430 pupils as of November 2025, up from 2,292 in November 2024. This is an increase of 138 pupils.
Les Varendes High School saw the most significant growth between 2024 and 2025, increasing from 614 to 775 pupils — a rise of 161 students that reflects its absorption of La Mare de Carteret pupils. The school's Year 10 cohort more than doubled from 120 to 198 pupils, whilst Year 11 numbers rose from 74 to 172.
Les Beaucamps High School maintained steady numbers, increasing marginally from 721 to 741 pupils. St Sampsons High School grew from 690 to 715 pupils.
Smaller institutions showed varied patterns. Le Murier School, which caters for pupils with special educational needs, remained stable with 108 pupils in 2025 compared to 110 in 2024. St Anne's School's secondary phase increased slightly from 50 to 53 pupils.
Les Voies School, which provides alternative education provision, saw its total pupil numbers rise from 32 to 38. Specific year group breakdowns for Les Voies were withheld to maintain data protection integrity due to small cohort sizes.
Education, Sport & Culture acknowledged it holds similar data for grant-aided colleges but declined to release this information, citing exemptions under the States of Guernsey Freedom of Information Code. The committee stated that disclosure without the suppliers' consent would prejudice the future supply of such information.
The projections in Table 4 apply the historical 17% reduction evenly across the three state-maintained secondary schools. However, the committee cautioned that actual enrolment patterns may not reflect an even distribution, as parental choice and catchment factors can vary.
Between 2026 and 2030, the combined maximum number of pupils projected to enter Year 7 across all schools totals 2,557 before adjustment, or 2,140 after accounting for the 17% who typically leave the state-maintained sector.
The declining birth rate and demographic shifts appear to be driving the projected reductions. The sharpest single-year drop is anticipated between 2027 and 2028, when Year 7 entries are forecast to fall from 464 to 408 pupils — a decrease of 56 students or 12%.
For Les Beaucamps High School, the projected intake fluctuates significantly, dropping from 167 in 2027 to just 124 in 2028 before recovering somewhat to 149 in 2029. This volatility may present planning challenges for school resources and staffing.
The freedom of information request was received on 3rd June 2026 and responded to on 29th June 2026.
Q&A
Q: How much are secondary school Year 7 numbers expected to decline by 2030?
A: Year 7 entry numbers in state-maintained secondary schools are projected to fall from 459 pupils in 2026 to 400 in 2030, representing a decrease of 59 pupils or approximately 13%.
Q: What happened to La Mare de Carteret High School?
A: La Mare de Carteret High School underwent a planned merger with Les Varendes High School as part of the Transforming Education Programme. In 2024 it had no Year 7 or 8 pupils and does not appear in 2025 figures, indicating the merger's completion.
Q: Why don't all Year 6 pupils progress to state-maintained secondary schools?
A: Over the past five years, an average of 17% of Year 6 pupils in state-maintained primary schools have not progressed to state-maintained mainstream secondary schools. These pupils instead move to specialist schools, grant-aided colleges, or become home educated.
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