Population could be 2,000 less than reported due to a higher number leaving the island than previously thought
- Recent data validation has identified issues with historical outward migration statistics.
- The next statistical publication may show a downward revision of the total population by up to 3%.
- Quarterly publication of population, employment, and earnings figures currently on hold
- The target date of end-July for next publication has been delayed to ensure accuracy.
- IT system changes and data validation tasks must be completed before the next release.
Statistics on people moving out of Guernsey are believed to have historically understated the number.
It means that the total population could be up to 3% lower than has been calculated in the latest data available from the States which put it at 64,781 on 31st December 2023.
Population statistics are meant to be released quarterly, but have not been put out since October 2024.
The States has said that work is continuing to restore quarterly publications of population, employment and earnings figures.
“Additional data validation, alongside the improved capabilities of the new IT systems within the Revenue Service, has brought to light some issues with data used in the Rolling Electronic Census,” a spokesperson said.
“These issues are likely to have caused historical outward migration statistics (i.e. the number of people moving away from Guernsey) to be under-stated.
“As a result, the most recently published statistics likely over state net migration and the total population figure.
“While it is normal for these statistics to be re-stated by small amounts each time they are issued after new information comes to light, it is now expected that the next publication could include a downward revision of the total population of up to 3% - a larger revision than is normal.”
Since 2021 annual emigration has been reported as being between 2,030 and 2,877 a year and was said to stand at 2,226, in the 12 months leading up to December 2023.
It had been hoped to restore the quarterly publication of population, employment and earnings for the end of July, “but more time is needed to ensure that the statistics are as accurate as possible when they are next issued”.
The States said that previously published employment and earnings statistics, which are released in the same bulletin as population, should be unaffected.
“Accuracy of the statistics remains the priority: it is important that the public can have confidence in the published statistics.
“Since it is taking longer than anticipated to apply and validate all the necessary changes, additional resources have been applied to this work to accelerate it. Another update will be provided once a publication date has been set for the revised statistics. This update is provided in the interim for transparency.”
The Electronic Census has been used to provide quarterly population data since March 2014
The last traditional census in Guernsey was undertaken in 2001. In 2005, a decision was taken by the States to not undertake a census in 2006, but instead to investigate the feasibility of undertaking an administrative census using Social Insurance and Education records. Social Security produced some basic population counts by age and gender from 2006 onwards, with birth, death, immigration and emigration between each snapshot.
In 2010, the States decided to not run a traditional census in 2011 and instead to put the money towards the Rolling Electronic Census Project.
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