Guernsey sees 3.8% drop in greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 as general downward trend continues

• Guernsey's total greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 3.8% to 292.6kt in 2024.
• Emissions have been reduced by 50.8% since 1990, when they totalled 594.2kt.
• Transport remains the largest single source of emissions, contributing 37.3% of the total.
• Commercial and domestic combustion accounted for 22.6% of emissions in 2024.
• A provisional estimate projects emissions to further decrease to 288.3kt in 2025.

Greenhouse gas emissions have declined by 3.8% from 304.2kt in 2023 to 292.6kt in 2024. This decrease marks a cumulative reduction of 50.8% since 1990, when emissions reached a total of 594.2kt.

Transport accounted for the largest share of emissions in 2024, contributing 37.3%.

The primary breakdown of transport emissions revealed that 54% originated from on-island road transport, with aviation contributing 17% and navigation responsible for 29%.

Additionally, commercial and domestic combustion represented 22.6% of total emissions, amounting to 66.1kt of CO2 equivalent in 2024.

This area has also seen a reduction of 51.3% from the 1990 levels.

The use of the cable link with France was responsible for the step change in emissions.

“The emissions inventory is “source based”, which means it reflects only emissions released from Guernsey,” The Annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin report which contains the figures states.

“As such, emissions resulting from the generation of electricity in Europe, which is imported

for consumption in Guernsey, are not included. Electricity has been imported via a cable link to France since 2001, resulting in a significant decrease in the amount of power generated on-island.”

The Bulletin indicates that "the majority (78%) of the emissions were in the form of carbon dioxide.”

The report projects a provisional estimate for total greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 at 288.3kt, suggesting a continued trajectory of reduction.

Based on the latest greenhouse-gas inventory, Guernsey appears to be broadly meeting the direction of its international climate commitments.

Emissions have fallen from 594.2 kilotonnes of CO₂ equivalent in 1990 to 292.6 kilotonnes in 2024 — a reduction of around 50.8%.

This level of decline exceeds the types of reductions typically associated with the Kyoto Protocol and its Doha Amendment commitment period (2013 to 2020).

While the Paris Agreement, extended to the island in 2023, does not impose fixed targets, the continued downward trend in emissions suggests Guernsey is aligned with the agreement’s objective of progressively reducing greenhouse-gas output over time.

This forecast is based on historical trends and current data analysis.

Guernsey’s analysis of greenhouse gases is compiled by Aether Limited, which aligns with the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory.