House prices rise 3.6% year-on-year to £613,694
- Average local market house prices reached £613,694 in Q3 2026, up 3.6% year-on-year and 10.7% higher than five years ago
- Properties took 268 days on average to sell, slightly longer than Q3 2025 (265 days) and significantly longer than Q3 2021 (168 days)
- Average rental prices were £2,134 per month, up 1.1% year-on-year but 33.5% higher than five years previously
- Housing stock increased by net 106 units in the year ending September 2026, with 157 units created and 51 removed
- Open market median price fell to £1,455,188 from £1,852,500 in Q3 2025, though remained above the £1,345,500 recorded five years ago
Average house prices in Guernsey's local market reached £613,694 in the third quarter of 2026, representing a 3.6% increase year-on-year and a 0.8% rise from the previous quarter, according to the latest quarterly bulletin from the States of Guernsey.
The mix-adjusted average purchase price was 10.7% higher than five years previously in Q3 2021, though the market saw 199 local market transactions during the quarter — 62 fewer than the previous quarter and 10 fewer than Q3 2025. This compares to 285 transactions five years ago.
Properties are taking longer to sell than in recent years. The four-quarter rolling average time between a local market property becoming available for purchase and its subsequent sale was 268 days for properties purchased in Q3 2026, compared with 265 days in Q3 2025 and 168 days in Q3 2021.
The largest number of transactions — 62 in total — occurred in the £500,000 to £699,999 value band, representing 31% of all sales. The distribution showed 6% of transactions below £300,000, 29% in the £300,000–£499,999 range, 17% in the £700,000–£899,999 bracket, and 17% above £899,999.
By property type, three-bedroom houses, three-bedroom bungalows, and four-bedroom houses or bungalows all accounted for the highest proportions of transactions at 16% each. Two-bedroom apartments represented 14% of sales, whilst one-bedroom apartments accounted for 11%.
The median loan-to-value ratio in Q3 2026 was 76%, down from 80% in Q2 2026 and 79% in Q3 2025. The total value of all bonds issued during the quarter was £202 million, of which £48 million related to residential purchases. The total value of all conveyances recorded was £238 million, with £132 million relating to local market residential purchases.
The annual percentage change in property purchase prices of 3.6% was lower than the annual percentage change in the Retail Prices Index, a measure of inflation.
In the open market, 28 transactions occurred during Q3 2026, with a raw median price of £1,455,188 for realty only. This represented a significant decrease from £1,852,500 in Q3 2025, though remained above the £1,345,500 median recorded in Q3 2021.
The four-quarter average for open market prices decreased by 7.6% between Q3 2025 and Q3 2026, though the five-year change showed the four-quarter average increased by 34.4%. Open market prices demonstrate considerably more volatility than local market prices due to the wide-ranging property types and smaller transaction volumes.
The 28 open market transactions represented a 1.9% turnover of all open market (Part A) property units, compared to 22 transactions (1.5%) in Q3 2025 and 16 transactions (1.1%) in Q3 2024.
In the rental market, the mix-adjusted average rental price for local market properties was £2,134 per calendar month in Q3 2026. This represented a 0.2% decrease from the previous quarter, but a 1.1% increase year-on-year and was 33.5% higher than five years previously.
The quarterly progression showed £2,170 in Q1 2026 (a 0.4% increase from Q4 2025), £2,138 in Q2 2026 (a 1.5% decrease from Q1 2026), and £2,134 in Q3 2026. Annual changes demonstrated 1.1% growth in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025, 2.8% growth in Q3 2025 versus Q3 2024, and 7.6% growth in Q3 2024 versus Q3 2023.
The annual percentage change in rental prices of 1.1% for Q3 2026 was also lower than the annual percentage change in the Retail Prices Index, indicating some moderation in rental growth rates.
Housing stock increased by a net 14 units during Q3 2026, with 24 property units created and 10 removed. In the year ending September 2026, there was a net increase of 106 property units, with 157 units created and 51 removed.
Quarterly changes over the past year showed Q4 2025 with 47 units created and 12 removed (net +35), Q1 2026 with 61 created and 16 removed (net +45), Q2 2026 with 25 created and 13 removed (net +12), and Q3 2026 with 24 created and 10 removed (net +14).
New construction activity showed that 3.5% of local market purchases during Q3 2026 had been built in the previous twelve months, compared to 3.8% in Q3 2025 and 2.5% in Q3 2021. An additional 2.5% had been built one to three years previously, meaning 6% of transactions involved properties less than three years old.
The four-quarter average of transactions for properties less than one year old has varied between 2.2% and 8.5% since March 2015, whilst for properties less than three years old, the range has been 3.4% to 10.3%.
Price differentials between advertised and transaction prices showed notable variations. The differential between the last recorded advertised price and the transaction price ranged from 3.1% to 8.7% across different value bands in Q3 2026. The maximum advertised price consistently showed larger differentials compared to the final transaction price, with lower-priced properties generally showing smaller differentials.
Open market properties consistently took longer to sell than local market properties over the past five years. In Q3 2026, houses and bungalows took the same time to sell as apartments on average.
Affordability ratios provided insight into market conditions, though the most recent purchase price to earnings data was only available to Q3 2024. At that point, the ratio stood at 14.1, representing an 8.7% annual decline from Q3 2023's ratio of 15.4.
The annual rent to earnings ratio in Q3 2024 was 0.55, showing a 2.5% annual increase. The purchase price to annual rent ratio in Q3 2026 was 23.5, down 1.7% annually from 23.9 in Q3 2025. This declining ratio suggests that rental yields have been improving, or alternatively, that purchase prices have been growing more slowly than rents.
The bulletin emphasises important methodological considerations in interpreting the data. The mix-adjusted calculation uses weighting to reflect the profile of all owner-occupied and rented housing stock on the island, with seven categories covering one- and two-bedroom apartments, two- and three-bedroom houses, two- and three-bedroom bungalows, and four-bedroom houses or bungalows combined. Weights are updated annually based on changes to the island's housing stock.
The measures remain susceptible to fluctuations due to the size, quality and location of properties of any particular type and number of bedrooms varying from one quarter to the next. Due to the relatively small sample sizes, it is not possible to eliminate these variations completely.
Rental data has been collected from web and classified advertisements since early 2010 and is now provided by Cortex Technologies Limited through an automated IT system, providing greater coverage and reduced manual data collection requirements. Purchase data comes from the States of Guernsey Greffe and includes both realty (fixed assets like buildings and land) and personalty (moveable assets like carpets, fixtures and fittings).
Housing stock data classifies units as created when surveyed by Cadastre and allocated a postal address by Guernsey Digimap Services, which may differ from Planning Service completions based on Building Control records.
The bulletin notes that the prices are not intended to imply the value of any given property, but to reflect historic average values and changes, with many factors including age, location and quality determining the actual value of individual properties.
Q&A
Q: What was the average house price in Guernsey in Q3 2026?
A: The mix-adjusted average purchase price for local market properties in Q3 2026 was £613,694, representing a 3.6% increase year-on-year and a 0.8% rise from the previous quarter.
Q: How long are properties taking to sell?
A: The four-quarter rolling average time between a local market property becoming available for purchase and its subsequent sale was 268 days for properties purchased in Q3 2026, compared with 265 days in Q3 2025 and 168 days in Q3 2021.
Q: How have rental prices changed?
A: The mix-adjusted average rental price for local market properties was £2,134 per calendar month in Q3 2026, representing a 0.2% decrease from the previous quarter but a 1.1% increase year-on-year and 33.5% higher than five years previously.
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