> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.thequarry.media/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # From a 16.6% energy spike to tax increases: where Guernsey’s shopping basket is costing you more - URL: https://www.thequarry.media/from-a-16-6-energy-spike-to-tax-increases-where-guernseys-shopping-basket-is-costing-you-more/ - Published: 2026-10-27T10:44:10.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-27T10:44:10.000Z - Author: The Quarry - Tags: News - Guernsey's annual inflation rate reached 4.6% in September 2026, up 1.3 percentage points from a year earlier - Fuel and light costs showed the largest annual increase at 16.6%, with electricity and kerosene prices driving quarterly rises of 2.8% - Households with retired persons faced the highest inflation at 5.3%, whilst private renters experienced the lowest at 3.9% - Housing costs contributed 1.1 percentage points to annual inflation, making it the most significant overall contributor - Low income households experienced 5.2% inflation compared to 4.2% for high income households Listen to this article 0:00 /0 1× Guernsey's inflation rate has risen to 4.6% in the year ending September 2026, marking an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the same period last year, according to the latest quarterly bulletin from [S](http://www.gov.gg/rpi?ref=thequarry.media)[tates of Guernsey Data and Analysis](http://www.gov.gg/rpi?ref=thequarry.media). The Retail Prices Index (RPI) all items inflation also increased 0.3 percentage points from June 2026, with core inflation measures showing similar upward trends. RPIX, which excludes mortgage interest, stood at 4.5%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year and 0.2 points from the previous quarter. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/48/0b/480bfed6-f3f7-4a48-9efe-fae23adf5d03/content/images/2026/10/Guernsey_Inflation_Bulletin_September_2026.png) Fuel and light costs emerged as the most significant driver of quarterly price increases, rising 2.8% in the three months to September 2026\. The fuel and light group showed the largest annual increase at 16.6%, contributing 0.9 percentage points to the overall annual inflation rate. Electricity prices, kerosene, smokeless fuel and coal all increased during the quarter. Housing costs contributed 1.1 percentage points to annual RPI change, making it the most significant contributor to overall inflation. During the September quarter, housing costs increased 1.2% for RPI measures, with mortgage interest payments, rents, tradesperson fees and DIY items all rising. The quarterly RPI increase of 0.9% compared to 0.7% in September 2025 and 1.0% in June 2026\. Alternative measures RPICT, which excludes mortgage interest and constant taxes, and RPIY, which excludes mortgage interest and indirect taxes, both stood at 4.3% annually, up from 3.2% and 3.3% respectively in September 2025. Tobacco prices increased 10.4% annually, mainly due to new excise rates, whilst motoring expenditure rose 6.8% over the year. During the September quarter, motoring costs increased 1.8%, driven by higher petrol and diesel prices, increased car servicing charges and rising vehicle insurance premiums. Household services costs rose 1.9% in the quarter, with increases recorded for private school fees, playgroup and childminder fees, passport fees and cleaner fees. Clothing and footwear prices increased 2.0%, with women's trousers, dresses, coats and jumpers all more expensive, along with men's jumpers and children's tops, though sales on sandals, t-shirts and shorts provided some offsetting decreases. Household goods prices rose 1.2% during the quarter, with living room and bedroom furniture, rugs and duvet covers all increasing. However, reductions were seen in home office furniture, kitchen equipment and household cleaning products. Alcoholic drink prices increased 1.1% in the quarter, with shop-bought red and white wine, bottled lager and some spirits all rising, though special offers on some whiskies and ciders moderated the overall increase. Catering costs rose 0.9%, with take-away coffees, fish and chips, sandwiches, pub hot meals and school meals all more expensive. Food prices fell 0.3% during the quarter, despite increases in fresh chicken, individual cakes, breakfast cereals and canned tuna. The decrease was primarily driven by special offers on energy drinks, sweets, sauces and pizza. Leisure services costs declined 0.5%, with package holiday prices and Channel Islands holiday accommodation costs both decreasing, though evening classes, holiday insurance and sports membership fees increased. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/48/0b/480bfed6-f3f7-4a48-9efe-fae23adf5d03/content/images/2026/10/Guernsey_Household_Cost_Indices_Gap.png) The bulletin revealed significant variations in inflation rates across different household types. Households containing one or more retired persons experienced the highest increase at 5.3%, some 0.6 percentage points above the overall average household cost index (HCI) of 4.7%. Their staple goods and services costs rose 6.7%, whilst additional goods and services increased 3.4%. Private renter households experienced the lowest inflation rate at 3.9%, some 0.8 percentage points below the overall average HCI. Their staple goods and services costs increased 4.4%, with additional goods and services rising 2.8%. Low income households faced inflation of 5.2%, compared to 4.2% for high income households. Owner occupier households without mortgages experienced 5.2% inflation, compared to 4.5% for those with mortgages. Social renter and partial owner households saw 4.5% inflation. Households with one or more disabled persons experienced 5.2% inflation, compared to 4.6% for households with no disabled persons. Households with children saw inflation of 4.5%, marginally above the 4.4% experienced by households without children. The bulletin noted that since the second quarter of 2025, lower income households have experienced inflation rates higher than average, whilst higher income households have experienced rates lower than average. The key driver has been slowing increases in mortgage interest rates, which carry a higher weighting for higher income households. Retired person households have experienced higher than average inflation since the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to slowing mortgage interest rate increases, which carry lower weighting for retired households, and kerosene price increases, which carry higher weighting for this group. The greatest variance from the overall HCI was seen in households with different tenures. When mortgage interest increases more than private rents, owner-occupiers with mortgages experience higher than average HCI. Conversely, when private rents increase more than mortgage interest, private renters experience higher than average HCI. Reflation factors showed that £100 in September 2021 would require £131 in September 2026 using the RPI measure, or £129 using the RPIX measure. The inflation data is based on the 2018-19 Household Expenditure Survey, with a new survey conducted in 2023-24 and results published in July 2026\. Updated weights are due to be applied in January 2027\. The basket comprises over 1,800 items tracked, with nearly 600 individual item indices calculated and around 2,000 goods and services priced. The bulletin calculates four RPI measures: RPI all items, RPIX which excludes mortgage interest payments, RPICT which excludes mortgage interest and the effect of indirect tax changes, and RPIY which excludes mortgage interest and indirect taxes. Thirteen HCI measures cover different household types based on income levels, presence of children, retired persons or disabled persons, and housing tenure. Methodological differences exist between RPIs and HCIs. RPIs use the Dutot method for averaging price changes, whilst HCIs use the Jevons method, which is not susceptible to the formula effect. HCIs weight to give equal household representation, whereas RPIs weight to give higher spenders higher representation. HCIs are designed to be compared with each other rather than with RPIs. The formula effect in September 2026 was 0.2 percentage points for both annual RPI and RPIX changes. A positive value indicates the Jevons method would produce a lower percentage change. The next quarterly bulletin for December 2026 is provisionally scheduled for publication on 26th January 2027 at 9:30am. Additional resources including a guide and inflation calculator are available at gov.gg/rpi. ## Q&A **Q: What is Guernsey's current inflation rate?** A: The RPI all items inflation rate for the year ending September 2026 is 4.6%, up 1.3 percentage points from September 2025 and 0.3 points from June 2026. **Q: Which household types are most affected by inflation?** A: Households containing one or more retired persons face the highest inflation at 5.3%, followed by low income households and owner occupiers without mortgages both at 5.2%. Private renter households experience the lowest rate at 3.9%. **Q: What is driving the increase in inflation?** A: Fuel and light costs are the largest driver, increasing 16.6% annually and 2.8% quarterly, with electricity and kerosene prices rising significantly. Housing costs contribute 1.1 percentage points to annual inflation, making it the most significant overall contributor.