Use our budget calculator to see how the £98m. deficit can - and can't - be filled

Why we built the deficit calculator and what are its limitations?

Politics this summer, much like last term and the general election, will be dominated by how Guernsey can change its tax and spending policies.

The need for action is well argued, an aging demographic, a reliance on income tax that is threatened by the changing workforce numbers, years of under investment in the major infrastructure that island life relies on.

But the level of that deficit, and how it can be filled, remain open for debate, with a major decision set for this summer on what the taxation system will look like.

We have been here before, and last term the States failed to reach any conclusion.

This calculator uses all currently publicly available information to see how different tax packages, or a combination of them, impact on the deficit, and what role targeting spending cuts - which are not part of the tax debate but a wider issue - could play.

It clearly illustrates that one solution is not enough, neither the GST package or corporate tax changes alone fill the spending gap if the States keeps to a pledge to spend 2% of GDP on infrastructure and fails to take action on other revenue spending.

Within the figures are a string of unknowns.

For all the modelling, no-one can say with certainty how much long term income there will be from Pillar 2, for example, although we do know it will be volatile, or if changes were made to corporate tax, how business would react. The calculator has sliders to reflect this, based on the States' own modelling.

If you decide to salami slice committee budgets, you have no idea how that effects services.

If you go for lower capital spending, would borrowing be an option to help make up the shortfall?

Some of the data we use is dated, for example, the GDP figure is from 2023, but is the last available one.

The alternative taxes and charges section is again based on reports from last term, and have not been inflated to current levels. What they do show is how small some of them are even if they could form part of the solution.

Is there anything we're missing? Please let us know in the comments.

In the meantime, enjoy being the Treasury minister, there are no easy answers.